Betting the favorite isn’t always the way to win.  Choosing an underdog is one of the best ways to win a bet when you’re making NFL expert picks against the spread, and opening your options when you’re picking a team to bet on can mean winning bets your friends would have never won.

1. Most people favor the favorite.  When a favored team has a lot of people betting on it, the line gets pushed unreasonably high.  Sometimes, the team with the skills to win is actually the underdog because the public favors the more popular team when making their bets.  Pay attention to the team and do your research – don’t judge by the public’s favorite team.
2. No matter the score, winning means winning.  Most coaches aren’t willing to risk injury or burnout by smashing an opponent in the first half of the game.  In football more than any other game, a significant lead can be broken down in the second half.  Even if the team is known for early leads, they may not be the best choice for expert picks against the spread.
3. “Any Given Sunday.”  Almost all the NFL teams are on even ground – that is, all teams are equally well-equipped to win.  Many of the past Super Bowl winners were teams that weren’t supposed to succeed.  Don’t pay attention to which teams are classically considered “winners” and which are “losers.”
4. The other team may let their guard down.  When facing an underdog team, the favored team may not feel the need to play at 100%.  Take advantage of this.
5. Show your courage.  A lot of sports betting aficionados aren’t brave enough to bet on an underdog.  This can create extra line value for bettors who do have the guts to bet on the underdog.  Don’t pay attention to what your peers perceive as a “good” or “bad” team.